A recent post of mine, “The Truth Will Out,” discussed not only Trump’s reactionary stance on climate change and the general lack of sense in pushing for long-term expansion of the fossil fuel industry, but also that the renewable energy transition is making more and more economic sense for meeting the growing needs for electricity in the next five years, and mainly because wind, solar, and battery storage are cheaper and faster to put in place compared to natural gas-powered generation plants.

I mentioned in that post the curious case of interconnect queue differential between fossil fuel generation and renewable energy generation in terms of wait times in what is called the “Queue.” Fossil fuel projects generally wait about a year to get connected to the grids, while the average wait times for renewables is an improbable five-year wait.

What? If this seems weird to you, you are not alone.

What is even stranger is that there is a level of hysteria loose upon the land about growing energy demand, and most often linked to data centers and AI. Certainly, such facilities  require a lot of electricity and there are plans for the numbers of such facilities to increase, and then there is the issue of electrification, whether for home heating or EVs or any number of other ways to shift away from fossil fuels. It is reasonable to expect that demand for electricity will continue to grow after decades of steady usage levels, and while it is hard to forecast exactly how much electricity will be required at any given moment or across any particular year, the highest range of energy demand growth—some estimates claiming 10 percent growth per year!—may be more hysteria than sense, but, whatever. Let’s assume with confidence that our society’s movement toward more electricity usage rather than less electricity usage is the right direction.

What isn’t clear, despite the noise and smoke of the fossil fuel industry (especially natural gas) is why that industry insists that this additional energy is theirs to provide. Unfortunately, most media covering the issue of growing energy demands seems focused only on fossil fuels as the answer, and this coincides quite nicely with the Big Oil’s efforts to reverse Biden’s pause on new LNG export infrastructure and with regaining golden status with the Trump Administration. But building many new natural gas power generation plants moves forward only if one ignores the amount of renewable energy in the interconnect queue waiting to add power to the grid.

AI as Research Agent

Let’s start assembling some facts. I prompted the Gemini Deep Research Mode as follows: What is the typical electrical generation capacity in GW in America?

The answer:

The total installed electricity generating capacity in the United States is approximately 1,250 to 1,300 GW (gigawatts) as of early 2024.

Here’s a breakdown by major fuel sources:

• • Natural Gas: The largest contributor, accounting for about 44% of the total, or roughly 500-550 GW.
  • Coal: The second largest, with about 16% of capacity, though this has been declining.
  • Nuclear: Provides a significant share, around 90-100 GW, a reliable baseload power source.
  • Hydropower: Contributes around 80 GW.
  • Renewables (Wind and Solar): Combined, they account for over 25% of the total capacity, and are rapidly growing.
    • Solar: Approximately 150 GW.
    • Wind: Approximately 140 GW.

Important Note: These figures represent generating capacity, which is the maximum potential output of power plants. The actual electricity generated at any given time varies depending on demand, maintenance, and other factors.

 

Now let’s find out how much, in terms of GW, renewable energy projects are waiting in the Interconnect Queue, meaning that somewhere along in any particular renewable energy project, an application to the Interconnect Queue has been filed.

My prompt to Gemini Deep Research:

What is the range of estimates of the amount of renewable energy, in GW, waiting for interconnect (also known as the interconnect queue)? Cite sources for the different estimates and determine the accuracy and validity of the various estimates and provide the breakout per estimate of the readiness states (completed project, under construction project, in planning project, in financing stages project) of these renewal energy projects enumerated as waiting for interconnect.

In full, here’s the Executive Summary of the nine-page report generated:

This report examines the range of estimates concerning the amount of renewable energy capacity, measured in gigawatts (GW), currently awaiting interconnection to the United States electric grid. The analysis draws upon recent reports and data from government agencies, independent research institutions, and industry associations. The findings indicate a substantial volume of renewable energy projects in the interconnection queue, primarily comprised of solar, wind, and battery storage technologies. Estimates from late 2023 and early 2024 generally fall within the range of 2,050 GW to 2,600 GW of total renewable capacity. However, the report highlights significant challenges within the interconnection process, including low historical project completion rates, averaging around 14% of capacity for projects initiated between 2000 and 2018, and increasing wait times, which reached an average of approximately five years for projects completed in 2023. These factors suggest that while developer interest in renewable energy is exceptionally high, as evidenced by the massive queue, the actual realization of this capacity faces considerable hurdles. Efficient interconnection processes are crucial for translating this potential into operational clean energy generation and achieving national decarbonization objectives.

The report cites and quotes well-qualified sources, including the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE); Energy Information Administration (EIA); Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and other research institutions; and industry association such as Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), American Clean Power Association (ACP), and others; and other industry analyses, including SP Global Market Intelligence, Enverus, and Snippet.

The AI undertook comparative analysis of estimates, evaluation of accuracy and validity, and a synthesis and conclusion. There was also provided a three page list of sources and the source links used in the report. Here’s the Synthesis and Conclusion, in full:

Based on the analysis of recent reports and data, the estimated range for renewable energy capacity in the US interconnection queue as of late 2023 and early 2024 is approximately 2,050 GW to 2,600 GW. The highest estimates are consistently provided by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (around 2,600 GW), while SP Global Market Intelligence offers a slightly lower estimate (around 2,050 GW). These figures highlight the immense interest and investment in renewable energy projects across the United States.

However, the report also underscores the significant challenges and bottlenecks that persist within the interconnection process. The alarmingly low historical completion rates and increasing wait times indicate that a substantial portion of this proposed renewable energy capacity may not ultimately reach commercial operation under the current system. Ongoing efforts to reform and improve the interconnection process, such as FERC Order No. 2023, are crucial for streamlining the connection of viable renewable energy projects to the grid.

In conclusion, while the volume of renewable energy capacity waiting for interconnection is substantial and demonstrates a strong commitment to clean energy development, the complexities and inefficiencies of the interconnection process present a significant hurdle. Realizing the full potential of this queued capacity will require continued focus on grid modernization, policy reforms that facilitate efficient interconnection, and sustained collaboration among government agencies, grid operators, project developers, and other stakeholders. The successful integration of these renewable energy resources is paramount for achieving national clean energy goals and ensuring a reliable and sustainable energy future.

The conclusive is convincing. One can’t simply say, oh, there’s 2,600 GW of renewable energy just waiting to be plugged in. Some such projects are in early planning or still seeking funding, some have gone a bit beyond that earliest of stages and others all the way to executed Interconnect agreements. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab has a table the report cites that describes renewable energy readiness.

Readiness Metric	Value (as of end of 2023)
Total Renewable Capacity (estimated)	~2470 GW
Capacity with Executed Interconnection Agreements	~311 GW (12%)
Capacity with Proposed Online Date by 2026	~1271 GW (49%)
Historical Completion Rate (2000-2018)	~14% of capacity
Solar Completion Rate (2000-2018)	~14%
Wind Completion Rate (2000-2018)	~20%
Battery Completion Rate (2000-2018)	~11%
Overall Withdrawal Rate	>70%
Average Queue Duration (projects built in 2023)	~5 years

Two issues are especially noteworthy. The first is that the historical completion rates for these projects is 14% of capacity, which, if this trend carries, means that 346 GW can be expected on the grid, but then this historical data ends in 2018, four years before The Inflation Reduction Act passes and a half-dozen years behind today’s further cost reductions due to industrial scaling and efficiency improvements in manufacturing and implementation of renewable energy generation.

Even if you keep this worst-case projection for renewable energy project completion of 346 GW, this represents almost 27% additional electricity to the grids, almost three times higher than the highest energy demand growth projections of 10%. One could even meet this highest energy demand growth projection with the lower estimates of probable renewable energy projects in the queue, at 100-120 GW, although I believe that both the highest and lower estimates should be approached with caution.

Still, why exactly are so many claiming that only by building out more natural gas power generation plants can we meet our growing energy demands? You might also ask why the Interconnect Queue average waiting period for renewable projects five years, while fossil fuel projects are connected to the grid, on average, within a year or so.

Even with an oil-stained thumb on the scale, renewables are already in place and ready to go to meet our growing energy needs by a factor of three. And if as much as half of the renewable energy projects in pipeline got done (i.e., connected to the grid), we’d have ten times the amount of electricity in service than we have today.

Gee, we might even be able to mothball some of those polluting fossil fuel power plants, never mind keep these expensive and long-term natural gas projects from being built. And, oh yeah, we would be able to reduce the cost of electricity for all at the very same time.